A Grim Statistical History
Teams that go up 3-0 in a best-of-seven Stanley Cup Final have won 27 of 28 series. The only exception was in 1942, when the Toronto Maple Leafs rallied to defeat the Detroit Red Wings. Of those 28 series, 20 of them ended in sweeps. The Panthers are looking to bring out the broom in the Stanley Cup Final for the first time since the Red Wings eliminated the Washington Capitals in four games in 1998. Even if the Oilers manage to send the series back to South Florida with a Game 4 win, 25 of those 28 series have ended in no more than five games. Despite the odds, the Oilers still believe.
Oilers' Current Struggles
The Oilers are now 0-5-0 against the Panthers this season. Edmonton showed some fight in the third period on Thursday, with gritty goals from Philip Broberg and Ryan McLeod cutting the Panthers' lead to 4-3. However, the critical takeaway from Game 3 was the Oilers being down 4-1 going into the third period—on home ice, in a must-win game, against a team with a plus-15 goal differential in the final frame during the postseason. Their undoing came in an embarrassing 6:19 stretch in the second period when Florida scored three goals.
The Oilers had just tied the game at 1-all with a breakaway goal from Warren Foegele. However, a turnover by Skinner allowed Eetu Luostarinen to find Vladimir Tarasenko, making it 2-1 and deflating the crowd at 9:12. It was 3-1 at 13:57, as solid forechecking by Matthew Tkachuk forced a Darnell Nurse turnover that Sam Bennett snapped into the net for his seventh goal of the playoffs. Aleksander Barkov capped the scoring for Florida at 15:31, converting a 2-on-1 chance that the Oilers allowed to develop from deep within their attacking zone.
The Stars Fail to Shine
The mistakes piled up for Edmonton, but the goals for their star players did not. Foegele, Broberg, McLeod, and Mattias Ekholm have found the net, but the team's top scorers—Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman, and defenseman Evan Bouchard—remain goalless. These five players also spearhead Edmonton's power play, which has been ineffective this series against Florida's penalty kill, which boasts a perfect 10-for-10 record.
Edmonton's power play entered the series with a 37% success rate, the best in the postseason. Although McDavid has contributed with assists on three of the Oilers' four goals in the series, the team needs more from its other top performers. McDavid is on pace to become just the second player since 1967-68 to have a point on at least half of his team's postseason goals, the only other being Wayne Gretzky for the Oilers in 1988. However, his supporting cast has yet to register a point in the Stanley Cup Final.
Taking Responsibility
The frustration within the Oilers' camp is palpable. "Yeah, it's very frustrating, of course. I pride myself on being good in the playoffs and playing well and just can't seem to get anything going. So yeah, I obviously have to look in the mirror and try to be better," said Draisaitl. "We shot ourselves in the foot a little bit today. Made some individual and collective mistakes that they immediately took advantage of." Draisaitl acknowledges the gravity of the situation but remains hopeful. "It is disappointing being down 3-0. We've got to let that reality sink in. I'm not too sure what the stats are on coming back in it, but if anyone can do it, it's the Oil," said Stuart Skinner.
Head coach Kris Knoblauch also remains confident in his team. "I think we've shown that we can beat this team. I think there's a lot of belief in that. It's not like we're getting outplayed and we're just [saying], 'That team's better than us.' We can string together a lot of wins. We've shown it. I don't think there's any doubt in our room," he said. "There's frustration that we're down, but there's a difference between frustration and quitting. There's absolutely no quit. There's a belief that we can do this, so we just need to keep pushing," Knoblauch added.
Skinner echoed these sentiments, noting how a series of mistakes allowed Florida to seize momentum. "After they got that second one, they just kind of got on a roll. We let them take that momentum and stride with it. They got two more quick ones. Just kind of silly mistakes that don't need to happen," he said.
The Oilers have their backs against the wall but are refusing to bow out. "We're a good offensive team. They're doing a good job, but we're still getting our looks. It's just when you're chasing the game for a big chunk of the night, it's hard to come back. It's a steep hill right now, obviously. No choice but to take it one game at a time. Try and get one win in Game 4 and go from there," Draisaitl said.
With their season on the line, Edmonton’s stars must shine brighter than ever, and their collective belief might just pave the way for a historic comeback.