New Orleans Saints at a Crossroads with Alvin Kamara
New Orleans, La. -- The New Orleans Saints find themselves at a pivotal juncture regarding their star running back, Alvin Kamara.
Kamara's future with the team remains uncertain after he skipped the final practice of minicamp last week. According to his agent, Brad Cicala, Kamara's early departure was due to contract-related issues.
Although Kamara did not attend Organized Team Activities (OTAs) this offseason, he reported for the mandatory minicamp, a routine he has followed for several years. Despite the current uncertainty, Kamara expressed last year his desire to remain in New Orleans for the long term. He is expected to be a focal point of the Saints' 2024 offense under new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak.
Under previous Saints offenses, Kamara has thrived, catching at least 80 passes in each of his first four seasons and scoring double-digit touchdowns in 2017, 2018, and 2020. The coming season under Kubiak, however, could bring new dynamics and expectations.
Comparison with Christian McCaffrey
Kubiak, who served as the San Francisco 49ers' passing game coordinator last season, witnessed running back Christian McCaffrey flourish under his system. McCaffrey rushed for a career-high 1,459 yards. The 28-year-old McCaffrey, a first-round pick for the Carolina Panthers in 2017, received a two-year extension in June that will pay him an average of $19 million and guarantee him $24 million.
Kamara, who turns 29 on July 25, is one year older than McCaffrey. According to the Roster Management System, running backs with at least four seasons of 100 rushing attempts tend to peak at age 27 and then steadily decline in yards gained as they age. Moreover, rushing attempts also peak at age 27, whereas rushing average typically peaks between ages 24 and 26.
Factors Affecting Kamara's Performance
Several external factors have contributed to Kamara's statistical decline. He was suspended for the first three games of the 2023 season for violating the league's personal conduct policy. Additionally, the Saints struggled with offensive line issues and encountered difficulties in scoring within the red zone during the first half of the season.
Kamara's cap number of $18.55 million in 2024 is the highest on the team due to previous contract restructures in 2022 and 2023. A restructure would not provide Kamara with any new money but would temporarily create cap space by converting a portion of his base salary into a signing bonus. This move would lower his cap number for the current year while increasing it in future years.
Financial Implications and Future Outlook
If the Saints chose to release Kamara in 2025 without altering his contract, they could save anywhere from $18.9 million to $25 million against the salary cap. However, this potential savings is influenced by Kamara's inflated $22.4 million base salary for 2025, which would likely be addressed if Kamara remains with the team.
With training camp set to begin in about a month, the Saints have limited time to make a decision regarding Kamara's future. It's worth noting that Kamara missed five practices at the end of the 2020 offseason before agreeing to a new contract. He is currently signed through the 2025 season.
Quotes
"I haven't had a chance to talk to him, so I'm not sure why he wasn't out here for the rest of practice." - Head Coach Dennis Allen
"I want a lifetime contract. I want to be here forever." - Alvin Kamara
"You look at the history of this offense, I'll just say it's good for the running back." - Alvin Kamara
"You watch some of the past offenses that Klint has been able to operate, and most recent, you look at Christian [McCaffrey] and what he was able to do. I'm excited for that." - Alvin Kamara
"I'm not a stat dude. I don't stack myself up against other guys. You talk about Christian and all, me and Christian talk. I enjoy watching him play. I enjoy when he's able to do the things he does. Personally, I enjoy when I'm having success. But I think my message has been the same since I've been here ... whatever's asked of me, I just do that." - Alvin Kamara
"There was a play last year where I handed him the ball, and I remember I was like, 'Well, that's not open.' ... I turned around and he hit an explosive burst that I've never seen before. And when he showed up [at minicamp], I handed him the ball, and it just feels different." - Quarterback Derek Carr
"I have talked to him when he was here the last couple of days. He's been great, talked to him on the phone, even when he was gone [for OTAs]. We've been in constant communication." - Offensive Coordinator Klint Kubiak