The San Diego Padres have made a significant turnaround since their middling .500 record back on July 19. Sitting at a balanced 50-50 then, the Padres have since surged to a 62-52 record. This impressive run has catapulted them to the top wild-card spot in the National League (NL) and brought them within four games of the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West. The Arizona Diamondbacks nipping at their heels, just a half-game behind, only adds more drama to the playoff race.
Part of this resurgence is attributed to the team's stellar performance since the All-Star break. Sporting a 12-3 record with a +42 run differential, the Padres have been on a tear. Key players such as Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Jurickson Profar, and Jackson Merrill have been pivotal in this stretch.
Offensive Stars Shine
Manny Machado has been blazing hot, hitting .347 with five doubles, four home runs, and nine RBIs over his last 12 games. Xander Bogaerts, since July 12, boasts a .420 batting average and a .551 slugging percentage, showcasing his consistency and power at the plate. Jurickson Profar has contributed significantly with a .993 OPS, five homers, 12 RBIs, and 13 runs in 15 games since the break. Jackson Merrill, meanwhile, has maintained a .309 average, driving in 10 runs and scoring 11 times, including seven doubles.
Pitching Prowess
It’s not just the Padres' bats that are delivering; their pitching staff has been equally impressive. Since the All-Star break, Padres starters have combined for an 8-2 record, accompanied by a remarkable 2.61 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP. Standout performances from Dylan Cease, who holds an incredible 0.31 ERA with 38 strikeouts in his last five starts, and Michael King, who has a 1.76 ERA over his recent five starts, have provided crucial stability and dominance. Martin Perez also made an impactful debut, allowing just one run over six innings while striking out seven.
The bullpen has complemented the starters' efforts with a solid 2.96 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 67 strikeouts over 54 2/3 innings since the break. Robert Suarez, in particular, hasn’t conceded a run since July 5. New addition Jason Adam has thrown three scoreless innings, and Tanner Scott, despite allowing a home run in his first outing, has rebounded with four strikeouts in 2 1/3 innings.
Injury Updates and Returns
The Padres have managed to perform well despite the absence of Fernando Tatis Jr., who has been sidelined since June due to a stress reaction in his femur. Meanwhile, Joe Musgrove is on the verge of returning. After throwing 41 pitches in his rehab assignment last Sunday, there's a "high probability" his next start will be with the big-league club, according to manager Mike Shildt. Musgrove's return could provide the Padres with an additional boost as they push towards the postseason.
Playoff Prospects
As the season progresses, the Padres face relatively manageable competition; their remaining opponents have a combined winning percentage of .481. This sets the stage for a potentially favorable run towards the playoffs. Projections reflect an optimistic outlook, with an 80.2% chance of making the playoffs. However, winning the division remains a more challenging objective. Various projections give the Padres a lower probability in this regard: SportsLine at 15.5%, FanGraphs at 14.5%, and PECOTA at 6.6%.
As the Padres continue their compelling campaign, their performance in the coming weeks will be crucial. With a combination of hot bats, solid pitching, and key players returning, the team appears well-equipped to maintain their current momentum and secure a playoff spot.