At Progressive Field, the Minnesota Twins found themselves in a familiar and frustrating position, blowing a three-run lead to lose 4-3 to the Cleveland Guardians. Griffin Jax, who has been a reliable bullpen arm, surrendered a game-winning two-run homer to Kyle Manzardo in the bottom of the eighth inning. It's the latest setback in what has been a tumultuous stretch for the Twins.
In their last 27 games, the Twins have dropped 18, a losing skid that has reduced their lead for the third AL wild-card spot to a precarious 1 1/2 games. Just a month ago, FanGraphs calculated the Twins' postseason odds at 95.4%. However, their chances have dwindled to 76.4% due to their recent struggles.
Offensive Woes
The Twins' offensive inconsistencies are glaring. In 12 of their last 27 games, they have failed to score more than three runs. During this stretch, the team has batted a meager .236, with a .296 on-base percentage and a .381 slugging percentage. This is exacerbated by their performance when the bases are empty, hitting .272, making them the fourth worst in the league in such situations. Manager Rocco Baldelli acknowledges the shortcomings, stating, "If we're able to do what we need to do on the offensive end, we win, but we did not. We have to do better and we have to put nine innings together."
Adding to their challenges, the team has played 17 games in the last 18 days, leaving players physically and mentally fatigued. "It's pretty heartbreaking. We're kind of running on fumes as a staff," said Griffin Jax after the latest loss.
Pitching Problems
The struggles aren't confined to just the offense. The bullpen, which maintained a solid 3.84 ERA and ranked tenth in the league in win probability added (plus-3.41) during their first 123 games, has faltered. Over the recent 27-game period, the bullpen's ERA has ballooned to 5.47, and their win probability added has plummeted to a league-worst minus-2.75.
Compounding the issue, the rest of the rotation has posted a 6.07 ERA during this same stretch, averaging just 4.38 innings per start. The Twins have held the lead in the seventh inning or later in five of their last 18 losses and were tied in the seventh inning or later on two more occasions. Nonetheless, the inability to close out games has been a recurring theme. As Pablo López put it, "Our margin of error keeps shrinking and shrinking. Now it's to the point where you've got to take it one day at a time, one pitch at a time, one at-bat at a time. Today will be a tough pill to swallow."
Bright Spots and Upcoming Returns
Despite the challenges, there are glimmers of hope. Max Kepler is expected to return to the lineup soon, which could provide a much-needed boost. Furthermore, Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa have shown signs of life, hitting a combined 5 for 15 with two doubles and a homer earlier in the month.
In a bid to fortify their pitching staff, the Twins claimed left-hander Cole Irvin off waivers from the Baltimore Orioles. Irvin, who has a 4.86 ERA in 16 starts and nine relief appearances, could be a valuable addition. "We were thinking, how do we lengthen out what we already have? He could be your prototypical swingman who can pitch out of the bullpen. We don't have a left-handed starter in the mix right now either. He just adds another guy that we think can help," said Derek Falvey, the team’s president of baseball operations.
The Road Ahead
The Twins must navigate the remainder of the season with precision and resilience. They hold crucial tiebreakers over both the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners, who are just two games behind them in the standings. The Tigers, in particular, have been surging with a 23-10 record in their last 33 games.
For the Twins, it's now about rediscovering their identity and executing consistently. "We have to find ourselves as a team. We've been looking over the last month as far as who we are and how we're going to do this," Baldelli emphasized. The goal remains clear, but the path is undoubtedly challenging.
As the Twins fight to secure their postseason berth, every game, every pitch, and every at-bat carry increased significance. For a team that once seemed destined for October, the margin for error has all but vanished.